Introduction
In the first half of the year, domestic Pvc Suspension Resin exports maintained rapid growth, with a PVC powder export volume of 2.388 million tons from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the export resilience of PVC powder will still exist, but trade disputes will increase, price advantages will slightly decrease, and export growth rate may slow down.
In the first half of the year, domestic Pvc Suspension Resin exports maintained rapid growth, with a PVC powder export volume of 2.388 million tons from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the export resilience of PVC powder will still exist, but trade disputes will increase, price advantages will slightly decrease, and export growth rate may slow down.
Polyvinylchloride Resin exports maintained rapid growth in the first half of the year
In the first half of 2026, the export volume of domestic PVC powder maintained a rapid growth. According to customs data statistics, the export volume of domestic PVC powder from January to June was 2.388 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. In the first quarter, supported by the "export rush", the year-on-year growth rate of exports was as high as 45.12%. In the second quarter, due to the influence of demand leading and overseas demand gradually entering the off-season, there was a slight year-on-year decline. The export of PVC powder in the second quarter was -1.32% year-on-year.
In the first half of 2026, the export volume of domestic PVC powder maintained a rapid growth. According to customs data statistics, the export volume of domestic PVC powder from January to June was 2.388 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. In the first quarter, supported by the "export rush", the year-on-year growth rate of exports was as high as 45.12%. In the second quarter, due to the influence of demand leading and overseas demand gradually entering the off-season, there was a slight year-on-year decline. The export of PVC powder in the second quarter was -1.32% year-on-year.
The impact of tax refund policies has led to significant differentiation in export volume in the first and second quarters
In the first half of the year, the export of PVC powder showed a trend of high in the beginning and low in the end. The sustained and rapid growth of China's PVC powder exports in the first quarter was mainly supported by the "export rush". The driving force behind the "export rush" phenomenon of PVC powder is a policy issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation. On January 8th, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. The export policy adjustment for PVC powder in the announcement is to cancel the tax rebate from April 1st. Previously, the export policy for PVC powder had been a full 13% tax rebate. So in the first quarter, both overseas buyers and domestic exporters wanted to seize the last opportunity for tax refunds, which drove the rapid growth of export volume. In addition, the fact that domestic prices are still in a global price trough is somewhat related. In the second quarter, PVC powder showed a significant decline compared to the first quarter, and there was also a slight decrease compared to the same period last year. The main influencing factors were that on the one hand, the "export rush" market in the first quarter overdrawn some of the demand in the second quarter, and on the other hand, due to the situation in the Middle East, global PVC experienced a sharp rise and fall in March and April, which suppressed some demand. The third aspect is that in the second quarter, low-priced goods from the United States competed significantly with those from China, causing domestic exports to temporarily lose their price advantage.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, PVC powder exports will continue to maintain a year-on-year growth trend, but the growth rate will significantly slow down compared to the first half of the year.
Concentration of trade barriers inhibits China's export growth
This year, PVC powder trade disputes frequently occurred. On June 29, the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand initiated an anti-dumping investigation against PVC powder in Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China, China. The regular investigation period is 6-8 months, and the preliminary determination may be implemented around the end of 2026. On July 8th, the Korea Trade Commission initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese PVC powder, and a temporary preliminary ruling will be made within three months after the case is filed. On July 24th, the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry implemented price control on imported PVC powder, with a validity period of 6 months. The import of PVC is restricted for CIF India prices ≤ 766 US dollars/ton, and those above 766 US dollars/ton can be cleared normally. The impact of related trade disputes on the domestic PVC export market in the second half of 2026 is not significant for the time being, but it will trigger a wait-and-see attitude among some customers, and procurement in related regions will become more cautious.
China's oversupply is difficult to change, and the price depression will continue
The situation of domestic PVC Resin supply exceeding demand in the second half of the year is still difficult to change, and prices may continue to be at historical lows. The price advantage of the Chinese market still exists, but after the cancellation of export tax rebates, the price advantage has relatively decreased. The slight year-on-year decrease in PVC powder exports in the second quarter is mainly due to pre demand, and with inventory digestion, overseas demand will return to normal in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter when overseas gradually enters the peak season, and demand is expected to improve. In addition, the global supply and demand structure has not significantly deteriorated this year, and the substitutability of Chinese sources of goods is not strong. The export resilience of Chinese PVC powder still exists.
Overall, the export resilience of domestic PVC powder in the second half of the year is still strong, and the export volume is expected to continue to increase year-on-year. However, with the cancellation of tax rebates, China's price advantage is now weakening, and trade disputes over PVC powder are frequent. Overseas wait-and-see sentiment may increase, so it is expected that the export growth rate of PVC powder in the second half of the year will decline.