Production status
The production of polyvinyl alcohol in China began in the 1960s. In 1965, a thousand ton production facility was built in Siping, Jilin. In the same year, Sinopec Beijing Dongfang Petrochemical Organic Chemical Plant (formerly known as Beijing Organic Chemical Plant) introduced technology from Japan to build China's first 10000 ton calcium carbide acetylene method (changed from calcium carbide acetylene method to petroleum ethylene method in 1995) production facility; In the 1970s, 9 sets of 10000 ton production facilities were built in various parts of China, all of which adopted the calcium carbide acetylene production process. In the 1980s, through technology introduction, the petroleum ethylene production unit of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and the natural gas acetylene production unit of Sinopec Chongqing Chuanwei Chemical Co., Ltd. (formerly Sinopec Sichuan Vinylon Plant) were respectively built and put into operation. Since then, the production capacity of polyvinyl alcohol in China has steadily increased, reaching 1.451 million tons per year in 2016. Subsequently, due to environmental impacts, poor business performance, or changes in production, not only were no new or expanded facilities built and put into operation, but multiple production facilities were also shut down one after another. In 2024, Anhui Wanwei High tech Materials Co., Ltd. will complete and put into operation a 60000 ton/year new plant, while the existing plant will be shut down. As of the end of December 2024, China's production capacity of polyvinyl alcohol is 1.096 million tons per year, making it the country with the most complete raw material routes and the largest production capacity of polyvinyl alcohol in the world.
The production capacity of polyvinyl alcohol in China is mainly concentrated in the East China (Anhui Province, Shanghai City, and Jiangsu Province), North China (Inner Mongolia), and Northwest China (Ningxia) regions. In 2024, the total production capacity of these three regions is 786000 tons per year, accounting for approximately 71.72% of the total production capacity.
The production of polyvinyl alcohol in China adopts the ethylene method and acetylene method processes. In 2024, the total production capacity using the calcium carbide acetylene method is 660000 tons per year, accounting for approximately 60.22% of the total production capacity; The total production capacity using the ethylene method is 276000 tons per year, accounting for approximately 25.18% of the total production capacity; The total production capacity using natural gas acetylene method is 160000 tons per year, accounting for approximately 14.60% of the total production capacity. Among the 10 polyvinyl alcohol production enterprises in China, except for Changchun (Jiangsu) Chemical Co., Ltd., all other production enterprises have supporting facilities for producing vinyl acetate raw materials. Anhui Wanwei Group Co., Ltd. is the largest polyvinyl alcohol production enterprise in China, with a production capacity of 310000 tons per year (including Guangwei and Mengwei production capacity) in 2024, accounting for about 28.28% of the total domestic production capacity. It is distributed in Chaohu, Anhui (headquarters), Hechi City, Yizhou District, Guangxi, and Chahar Right Rear Banner, Inner Mongolia. It can produce products with different degrees of polymerization and alcoholysis, mainly including PVA 1799, PVA 2699, PVA 0499, PVA 0599, PVA 1788, and PVA 0588.
Import and export analysis
According to relevant statistical data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from 2019 to 2024, the import volume of polyvinyl alcohol in China showed a development trend of first increasing year by year, then decreasing year by year, and then increasing again.
In 2024, China's imports of polyvinyl alcohol will mainly come from Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the United Kingdom and the United States. The total import volume will reach 33400 tons, accounting for 90.03% of the total import volume, with a year-on-year growth of 23.70%. Among them, Japan is the largest source of imports, with an import volume of 18700 tons, accounting for 50.40% of the total import volume, a year-on-year increase of about 28.08%; Next is Singapore, with an import volume of 6500 tons, accounting for approximately 17.52% of the total import volume, a year-on-year increase of approximately 27.45%; In addition, the import volume from Taiwan, China was 3700 tons, accounting for 9.97% of the total import volume, with a year-on-year growth of about 8.82%; The import volume from the United States is 0.25 million tons, accounting for approximately 6.74% of the total import volume, a year-on-year increase of approximately 8.70%; The import volume from the UK was 0.2 million tons, accounting for approximately 5.39% of the total import volume, a year-on-year increase of approximately 33.33%.
In 2024, the import of polyvinyl alcohol in China will mainly be concentrated in four provinces and cities: Zhejiang, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Yunnan, with a total import volume of 31000 tons, accounting for about 83.56% of the total import volume, a year-on-year increase of about 35.37%. In 2024, the import of polyvinyl alcohol in China will mainly be through two trade modes: general trade and processing trade, with a total import volume of 36700 tons, accounting for about 98.92% of the total import volume and a year-on-year growth of about 19.54%.
From 2019 to 2024, the overall export volume of polyvinyl alcohol in China showed a development trend of first decreasing and then increasing year by year (except for 2023). The export volume in 2024 reached its highest value in recent years, reaching 210200 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 14.30%. The corresponding export unit price shows a development trend of first decreasing, then increasing year by year, and then decreasing year by year. The export unit price in 2019 was $1750.36 per ton, and in 2020 it was the lowest value in recent years at $1610.37 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 8.00%. The export unit price in 2022 reached its maximum value of 3576.60 US dollars per ton, a year-on-year increase of about 52.01%. The export unit price for 2024 is $1744.19 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 11.99%.
In 2024, China's polyvinyl alcohol was mainly exported to India, Pakistan, Italy, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia, with a total export volume of 115100 tons, accounting for 54.76% of the total export volume, with a year-on-year increase of about 5.50%.
In 2024, the export of polyvinyl alcohol in China will mainly be concentrated in five provinces, municipalities, and cities including Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Inner Mongolia, and Hubei, with a total export volume of 181900 tons, accounting for approximately 86.54% of the total export volume and a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.43%.
In 2024, China's polyvinyl alcohol exports will mainly consist of two trade modes: general trade and logistics goods under special customs supervision. The total export volume will reach 209500 tons, accounting for 99.67% of the total export volume and a year-on-year increase of about 14.42%. The export volume of general trade mode is 208300 tons, accounting for 99.10% of the total export volume, with a year-on-year increase of about 14.26%; The export volume of logistics goods trade in the customs special supervision area is 1200 tons, accounting for about 0.57% of the total export volume, a year-on-year increase of about 50.00%.
Consumption Status and Development Prospects
From 2019 to 2024, the apparent consumption of polyvinyl alcohol in China showed an overall trend of first increasing, then decreasing, and then with relatively small changes in growth rate. The apparent consumption in 2019 was 652400 tons, reaching the highest value in recent years of 684600 tons in 2020, a year-on-year increase of about 4.94%. The consumption in 2023 is the lowest in recent years at 547200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 8.43%. The apparent consumption in 2024 is 576900 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 5.43%. The self-sufficiency rate of the corresponding product was 120.17% in 2019, a year-on-year increase of about 2.92%; In 2024, it will be 130.01%, a year-on-year increase of about 1.63%.
In recent years, while the total consumption of polyvinyl alcohol in China has remained stable, the consumption structure has been continuously optimized, and the proportion of downstream high value-added demand has increased. The consumption structure of polyvinyl alcohol in China in 2024 is as follows: the demand for polymerization additives accounts for about 12.0% of the total consumption, fabric pulp accounts for about 18.0%, PVB resin accounts for about 7.0%, vinylon fiber accounts for about 10.0%, papermaking pulp and coatings account for about 8.0%, adhesives account for about 40.0%, and other aspects account for about 5.0%.
With the steady growth of China's economic construction, the demand for high support and high-density high-end textiles, high-end papermaking chemicals, automotive and building safety glass, PVB resin and film, biodegradable polyvinyl alcohol film, etc. will steadily increase. Due to the excellent performance of polyvinyl alcohol fibers, they can replace harmful asbestos materials in the construction cement industry, and the demand for polyvinyl alcohol will continue to grow in the future. In addition, the further development of infrastructure construction will bring new opportunities for the development of polyvinyl alcohol in the adhesive market. In addition to the demand in other fields such as fine chemicals and pharmaceutical chemicals, it is expected that the demand for polyvinyl alcohol in China will continue to grow steadily in the future, with a total demand of about 700000 tons by 2028. However, the structural supply-demand contradiction is prominent, and market competition will become more intense.